Originally Posted by Damien

I think we're talking about a point where the Russians nominally establish the first signs of whatever they view as the long-term plan for Ukraine to be (or if they somehow decide to simply leave). If we assume they install either a puppet government for the whole country or divide it up into two that'll be when it moves to the next phase, likely one of the Russians trying to brutally suppress insurgents.

The lack of any obvious solution does suggest this was a spectacular misjudgement. They probably expected this to be easy and a puppet Government to be installed and established before the West could agree on a single sanction.

They can't hold the country without troops which will cause, as you say, a modern equivalent of Soviet Afghanistan further depleting their armies, wealth and political stability at home.

I wonder what our endgame is? Do we lift sanctions anytime soon? Even if Russia withdraws I can't see us allowing them back whilst Putin is in charge because he'll do this again. Are we stuck in this position until Putin is kicked out and how long can this unity survive before some Government gets tempted by cheap oil? Especially when this huge public support dims and the domestic political costs of dealing with Russia reduce?