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Originally Posted by Damien
Makes sense.
I suspect we're also keeping an eye on what happens if Ukraine falls which is likely. Those planes require an airfield, maintenance, re-fueling none of which is suited to an insurgent campaign. Probably better to arm them with weapons they can use on the streets.
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Exactly. Huge quantities of material likely to be of use to insurgents is going to be more effective than planes that are difficult to operate and probably impossible to repair.
The question of whether Ukraine falls is an interesting one - how would we judge when that has happened? Kyiv may well fall and a puppet government may be installed there, but will its writ truly run across the whole country? I suspect a Russian-controlled Ukraine will be a somewhat worse experience for them than Soviet Afghanistan was.