[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

There’s a fair amount of analysis out there. Partly, he was always going to try something like this eventually. He’s a dyed-in-the-wool ethnic Russian nationalist and Kiev is surprisingly symbolic for such people because this is where the Russian Orthodox Church was originally founded. The ties between church and state have always been extremely strong in Russia, with the brief exception of its Soviet period.

Putin has an emperor complex and in order for him to feel he properly controls everything he is entitled to, the government in Kiev must be compliant. He tried to instal such a regime before but it was overthrown. Until now his efforts to rectify that have focused on nibbling around the edges of Ukraine. As to why he’s gone full Tonto now; well he is known to have been extremely paranoid about covid and is known to have kept everyone at arms length for 2 years now. It seems to have fed his general paranoia and now nobody can get close enough for long enough to talk him down. Only yes men can even get in the same room now. This is why making it painful for them is a key strategy. Putin isn’t going to change, but eventually the price of propping him up in his delusions will exceed the price of challenging him.

I've read some analysis that says that pulling out of Afghanistan encouraged Putin to do this not too long after.