[roughbeast]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I have picked this paragraph of your post as I really cannot be bothered to repeat yet again all those leaver predictions that didn’t come true. The rest you cannot rely on because the future has not happened.

We all know about the red tape and the costs that come with it. But Brexiteers pointed to the benefits of being released from the rest of the bureaucracy associated with the freedom of being outside the EU.

So far, we have only seen the rollover trade deals that we were busily putting into place to ensure that we would continue to benefit from the EU-negotiated deals in the first year. However, we are forging ahead with the trade deal for India right now, and negotiations commence for the trade deal with Canada in April.

It has been explained previously that the EU refused to include services in the trade deals they negotiated because other EU countries would benefit little from this. However, for us, services are the biggest income earner, and inclusion of services in our future trade deals will open up a very nice income stream indeed.

You are wrong on the US situation. We had a draft trade deal with America all ready to go under the Trump administration, but when Biden got in he was not interested in these big deals, preferring to negotiate in packets. So far we have succeeded in getting deals on beef and lamb, which is a good start.

As far as meat imports are concerned, trade deals can specify the standards required for sale in the UK, a little point that many remainers appear not to understand.

We have yet to benefit from Brexit freedoms firstly because these new trade deals will take a few years to negotiate, and secondly, we have yet to witness the ‘bonfire of regulations’ that Boris has said he intends to bring forward now.

Those economic forecasts you refer to are not worth the paper they are written on because they concentrate on what we already know about the downsides. Very few upsides are in that calculation because it is impossible to make a sensible and reasoned prediction as to how businesses will take advantage of their new freedoms, which will be gradually introduced over the coming years.

We have been outside of the EU for less than three months, and yet remainers claim that we should already be seeing massive benefits from Brexit by now if it was to succeed. This is naive and stupid. The new freedoms are nowhere near completed yet. Any real benefits that push us into credit should be seen as medium, not short-term benefits.

I'm not sure you read my post carefully.

The economist scenarios for different models of Brexit took into account the opportunities and drawbacks of Brexit. That is what economists do. They take all the factors and give us best and worst case scenarios to base our decisions on. It was the Leave press that misrepresented them and characterised them as part of Project Fear. Infact, they were project reality.

The possible deal with Trump's regime was nowhere near completion. As junior partners, and therefore rule takers, we would have struggled to maintain the sorts of standards we had developed with our EU partners as equal members. Trump and now Biden, know our desperation. The bargain the US will drive will be a hard one which we are in no position to resist if we want to replace the volume of trade we are steadily losing from the EU. For the USA also read India, China, Brazil, Russia and the PTO. We will end up dumbing down some of our hard-won product standards to match those of our larger partners. Note that our farmers are already very unhappy with the competition they will be getting as a result of that piddling Australian deal. You ain't seen nothing yet. TRade deals involving many, carbon-emitting miles, will be replacing the sound arrangements we had with our close neighbours. The timing of this massive commitment to greater carbon emissions could not be more ironic.

I am glad you acknowledged that it will take years to negotiate all those wonderful trade deals and arrangement and to benefit from all those opportunities. What is the government doing to enable the transition and soften the pain over these decades whilst we discover the sunny uplands. Little from what I can see. They haven't even bothered to replace the sums parts of our country got from the EU's regional development fund. We have saved all those billions in donations to the EU budget, but the government aren't using anything like the amount we have saved to uplevel Cornwall, the NE or the NW or rescue struggling farmers. It looks like Mogg's 50 years estimate is about right.

I haven't heard a single notable Remainer declare that we should be feeling the benefits of Brexit already. You made that accusation, so you could shoot it down. If the Remainers and Mogg thought that the benefits would take decades, they are hardly going to be looking for them yet. What they are looking for is some sort of road map of how those benefits are going to be realised and an indication of what those benefits really are. The small fry trade deals with Japan and Australia are hardly an indication of the promised land. The Japan deal is far inferior to the one the EU signed with Japan, shortly after us. (Guess who was the bigger partner?) Remainers are also looking for a plan to deal with and mitigate the current explosion in red tape caused by Brexit. There is no plan because the negotiations were so rushed that Johnson didn't expect these disadvantages. He rushed negotiations through to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny, but in doing so missed out on the parliamentary expertise that would have told him to plan for an red tape explosion or negotiate a deal that included frictionless trade. So much for the sovereignty of Parliament. So much for wresting democracy from Brussels.


You mentioned a 'bonfire of regulations'. We both know that to keep it simple we have rolled over most of the relevant EU regulations to do with trade, food production standards, manufacturing standards, services, health and safety, environmental protection human rights etc Sensible move. Tell me. Given that we helped establish these regulations and often initiated them, in the days before our political pendulum swung to the extreme right, what regulations are going to be thrown on the bonfire. We were on the winning side 97% of the time when these regulations were tailor-made in Brussels for each country by the multi-national team of civil servants who work there, and then voted on by our MEPs. What regulations do we now think we had got so wrong then? I know we have swung well to the right since 2010, but I still struggle to see what rules from my above list of categories we can suddenly ditch. The environment, manufacture standards, health and safety and food standards are important. Often we gold plated EU rules to make them even tougher here. Dare I mention Manx kippers?
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