Quote:
Originally Posted by roughbeast
The signs aren't good though. The effect of the massive increase in red tape, something the leave campaign hid from you, has led to a 2% decline in trade with the EU, factoring out Covid-19. At the moment, no deals come close to replacing that. A deal with India may happen if we accept their demand for increased immigration from India. A deal may happen with the USA if we accept their demand to sell us poor quality meats and GM crops and to get their commercial hands on our valued institutions like the NHS. They tried that with the EU, when we were still members. The EU had the clout to say 'No'.
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I have picked this paragraph of your post as I really cannot be bothered to repeat yet again all those leaver predictions that didn’t come true. The rest you cannot rely on because the future has not happened.
We all know about the red tape and the costs that come with it. But Brexiteers pointed to the benefits of being released from the rest of the bureaucracy associated with the freedom of being outside the EU.
So far, we have only seen the rollover trade deals that we were busily putting into place to ensure that we would continue to benefit from the EU-negotiated deals in the first year. However, we are forging ahead with the trade deal for India right now, and negotiations commence for the trade deal with Canada in April.
It has been explained previously that the EU refused to include services in the trade deals they negotiated because other EU countries would benefit little from this. However, for us, services are the biggest income earner, and inclusion of services in our future trade deals will open up a very nice income stream indeed.
You are wrong on the US situation. We had a draft trade deal with America all ready to go under the Trump administration, but when Biden got in he was not interested in these big deals, preferring to negotiate in packets. So far we have succeeded in getting deals on beef and lamb, which is a good start.
As far as meat imports are concerned, trade deals can specify the standards required for sale in the UK, a little point that many remainers appear not to understand.
We have yet to benefit from Brexit freedoms firstly because these new trade deals will take a few years to negotiate, and secondly, we have yet to witness the ‘bonfire of regulations’ that Boris has said he intends to bring forward now.
Those economic forecasts you refer to are not worth the paper they are written on because they concentrate on what we already know about the downsides. Very few upsides are in that calculation because it is impossible to make a sensible and reasoned prediction as to how businesses will take advantage of their new freedoms, which will be gradually introduced over the coming years.
We have been outside of the EU for less than three months, and yet remainers claim that we should already be seeing massive benefits from Brexit by now if it was to succeed. This is naive and stupid. The new freedoms are nowhere near completed yet. Any real benefits that push us into credit should be seen as medium, not short-term benefits.