Thread: Britain outside the EU
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Old 05-01-2022, 20:54   #3743
OLD BOY
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Re: Britain outside the EU
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
They are not "pessimistic", they are attempting to be realistic with the information they have - just because it doesn’t match your unbridled optimism (which isn’t even based on any data, just "opportunities"), doesn’t make it pessimistic.

Isn’t the debit side in the future, and dependent on business solutions?
How do you propose to quantify future business decisions which have not yet been made? These forecasts are always pessimistic because we can quantify what we are losing, but not what we are gaining. It’s like trying to nail a jelly to the wall.

The figures are pessimistic obviously because at this stage, we only know what we are losing without being able to calculate how we are benefiting. So the picture looks bleak.

Once businesses come up with ways in which they will take the new opportunities made available, you can start to put figures to those decisions - but not before.

It will take time to get anything like an accurate picture in terms of whether or not Brexit has been a success.

---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:45 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
They look at the whole picture. This is macro economics, not micro economics.

You seem unable to accept there is an economic cost to increased sovereignty. The two are a trade-off, like a see-saw. When one end is up, the other end is down.
You’ve completely missed the point, Andrew. Of course they know the cost. But they don’t know the gains. There’s no point in concentrating on one side of the equation without knowing the other.

Surely, this is obvious.

---------- Post added at 20:54 ---------- Previous post was at 20:47 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
The timescale was set when the FT asked nearly 100 economists how the UK economy would perform in 2022. Old Boy erroneously suggested that their analysis only included the negative impacts of Brexit and not the positive ones.
I pointed out the problems with forecasting generally, Andrew. The same arguments are there for the short term, but obviously these are magnified significantly for long term projections.

I certainly agree that we will not have made up for the losses in the next year, but over the medium term, this will become much clearer.
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