Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
significantly
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There’s that word again.
Watch out in the absence of a definition they’ve got the easy win if deaths don’t rise in proportion with infections. As you could reasonably expect “if nothing changes”. A delta week to week comparison, or month to month comparison, before the booster campaign was fairly easy.
There’s two reasons this won’t happen - the collapse in vaccine efficacy against infection isn’t replicated effectiveness against hospitalisations. More people who wouldn’t have caught Delta in the first place will get Omicron but there’s still protection against hospitalisation and death by comparison to an unvaccinated population.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270
The second reason being the low hanging fruit of previous waves have already expired.
What the new cases/hospitalisations/deaths ratio lands at isn’t yet clear. School closures will have reduced the R number, plus delays in reporting data, lack of availability of testing, etc make this a rocky period for like for like comparisons to be made.