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Originally Posted by Chris
Best laugh I’ve had all evening.
You’ve been predicting “lockdown within a month” ever since summer. Even a broken clock is right twice a day - if there’s a lockdown of any sort this winter, you won’t have predicted it based on data.
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Grateful if you could source a single post where I predicted a lockdown within a month at any point since July.
We both know I've not predicted that - I have said at points if growth rates aren't kept in check, via other restrictions, a lockdown is inevitable as the emergency brake. Growth rates have fluctuated - in particular around school holidays - and finally vaccines for teenagers and boosters with mRNA vaccines are all positives.
However they only push back so much. Against Delta the Government have found it's sweet spot of cases, hospitalisations and deaths that it can live with - R roughly 1. 50k/1k/200.
Yet Omicron is out there - R is at least 2 it could be as high as 4. It throws the whole thing in the bin if the NHS is at 70-80% capacity. That's why this prediction is substantively different from the others.
---------- Post added at 23:22 ---------- Previous post was at 23:18 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I’m a school governor, I am seeing the school plans being put in place to try and get the pupils to recover from some of them being restricted from attending for no good reason.
You, however are not.
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Educators looking after educators interests - long holidays on an agricultural calendar. I'm sure they're totally impartial.
Quote:
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I guarantee many of your recent proclamations won’t age well.
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I cannot wait. You have no basis to offer any such guarantees other than blind hope. I've ignored the rest of your post - as you've said you don't consider there is a point in bringing in restrictions so pointing to any evidence in either direction is a fruitless exercise.
You're a school governor after all, I'm sure you could source your own empirical data if genuinely interested.