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Re: Coronavirus
Yes, that's what I was saying, the mutation leads to increased transmissibility in other variants, so it's probably going to have similar.
As for that graph, look at what it's actually measuring, it's the percentage of all sequenced cases. So, to reach 100% of 10 sequenced cases means only 10 tests need to show it. If you have more cases you sequence more. Alpha was dominant in a time where most of the world had a high number of covid cases, so would have taken more time to dominate than in SA, which until the last few days was registering around 300-400 cases most days. Reaching 100% of new sequenced cases in that context doesn't require too many samples to show it.
Also look at the wider picture in sub-Saharan Africa where there is a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, which causes immune system deficiencies - this is where this (and the Beta variant) came from. In SA there is also a low vaccination rate and a high amount who have actually had covid. It is thought this has immune escape but that could be the circumstances there, if for example there is a lot who the vaccine hasn't worked in, and who have recovered from the virus but then their immune system hasn't responded properly in terms of future response. Beta never really took off elsewhere and you would expect it might have if it has the ability to swerve previous immunity from infection or vaccination, why is that?
Obviously it wouldn't be a good idea in practice, but the UK and Europe are experiencing much higher numbers due to Delta than anything in SA (Where ours is stable theirs isn't). If this variant was introduced to that background as opposed to a context where very few have the virus, how will it react there, and which one will be the one infecting people? If this can not only dominate Delta, but can also infect people who have had the virus or been vaccinated, and not just cause milder symptoms like Delta seems to be, then this is going to be a bigger issue. But of course, that impact isn't known yet.
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