Quote:
Originally Posted by nffc
Going back to the paper Paul amongst others have said was nonsense.
It is only looking at it with the benefit of hindsight that we can of course reach this conclusion.
By this stage we knew similar to what we do now. The virus was still out there, still circulating at higher levels, and we'd still been vaccinating as many people as we could.
We knew the vaccines would probably hold out against hospitalisations but there wasn't enough data to know this for sure with Delta, that was presumably the main point of the 3 week delay, but the intention to open up provided nothing went horribly wrong was probably always there once Hancock was replaced.
It was a calculated risk but let's not forget the timing also coincided with school closures which would in itself have reduced spread of the virus in an environment where not only most people weren't vaccinated (and still aren't) but also spent a long time together in the same room. It's still likely the case if a kid turns up to school with covid that most of the class will get it, those who haven't already, that is (and this is where it will end). The fact spread amongst adults with everything open didn't then kick off at all implies that the vaccines are holding it enough, and that the measures may not have been as effective as you think.
It is true that a virus with a more transmissible advantage selectively will out compete and if something like Beta developed the transmissibility of Delta with the vaccine escape as well, then you would be looking at trouble, but this doesn't seem to be showing any signs of happening, in fact it's probably slowing down a bit on that since we had Alpha come up about this time last year and then in the spring we had Delta and not really much since (this Delta plus just seems to be a more transmissible version of Delta), and we're not actually seeing other variants able to out compete them. Again this is a fact we didn't know then, didn't know that is how it would turn out, and the risks mentioned were possible.
You can't look back at predictions really with the benefit of hindsight - 3 weeks to protect the NHS.
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Just wondering if you even read my post? I was specifically referring to the possibility of vaccine escape in a highly infected, mostly vaccinated population. This is still a concern today ..
---------- Post added at 14:12 ---------- Previous post was at 14:04 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Got it in one Dave.
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So if this is beyond even your basic understanding, as you put it, I am surprised you can completely dismiss a paper published in Nature as "bollocks" and have any credibility.