Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
If Article 16 was invoked, it would run and run. I think the government's sensible enough not to deploy it unless it still buys into the Cummings' play book of putting out one fire with a larger fire.
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It would, but that’s the whole idea. There has been much talk of “retaliation” from the EU if the UK invokes Art.16 but this misses the fact that any such retaliation can only be within the legal framework set out in the treaty. The EU can’t justify any actions outside of the treaty because in invoking Art.16 the UK isn’t acting outside of the treaty.
The EU can challenge the legality of the invocation - the time-consuming process for which is specified in the treaty - or it can enter into the required arbitration and review process. Again, this process is defined in the treaty and takes time to complete.
As you say, this could be construed as putting out one fire by starting a bigger one, however if this really is the strategy they’ve been following from the outset then it has to be at least possible that there’s a defined objective in mind. My guess is that HMG thinks whatever conditions develop on the ground while the arbitration plays out will become the de facto arrangements for the long term.