Chris

I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.