[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Can you provide a link, please, to these predictive models, as the SAGE papers I have found only seem to have indicative scenarios (not "predictions", their words*) about hospitalisations.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._scenarios.pdf

There’s nothing in the SAGE Minutes about zero level infections around December/January

https://assets.publishing.service.go...96_minutes.pdf

The Imperial College paper (part of the SAGE papers) - Autumn and Winter 2021-2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories states

https://assets.publishing.service.go...al_College.pdf

* These trajectories are not predictions or forecasts, but indicative scenarios as the timings and scale of any future peaks remain highly uncertain

In fairness to OB he made his statement (not prediction) based on these graphs. They certainly look close to zero following plan A rather than plan B for November through July.