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**Hugh** · 05-11-2021, 16:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Look at the graphs, why don’t you?

---------- Post added at 13:39 ---------- Previous post was at 13:35 ----------

It’s not my prediction. It’s the scientists’ own modelling. I have already provided the graphs.

---------- Post added at 13:40 ---------- Previous post was at 13:39 ----------

Another one - it’s not my prediction!

Can you provide a link, please, to these predictive models, as the SAGE papers I have found only seem to have indicative scenarios (not "predictions", their words*) about hospitalisations.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._scenarios.pdf

There’s nothing in the SAGE Minutes about zero level infections around December/January

https://assets.publishing.service.go...96_minutes.pdf

The Imperial College paper (part of the SAGE papers) - Autumn and Winter 2021-2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories states

https://assets.publishing.service.go...al_College.pdf

Quote:

A. Summary

This report summarises potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories until March 2022 based on the recent data and assumptions around changes in contact rates, vaccine effectiveness (VE) and coverage, cross-protection between variants, and waning of natural and vaccine- induced protection.

1. Based on the latest data available to 8 October 2021 on the UK Coronavirus Dashboard, 85% of the population aged 12+ in England have received one vaccine dose and 79% have received two doses.
2. The projected scale of the winter wave is sensitive to small changes in assumptions about vaccine effectiveness including boosters, cross-protection from prior non-Delta infections, and waning of natural- and vaccine-induced protection. It is also sensitive to the assumed level of social mixing reached by 1 December 2021.
3. In the most optimistic scenario we have considered (“central” VE, cross protection, waning of natural- and vaccine-induced protection, effectiveness of boosters, and lower contact rates), current levels of protection in the population combined with the delivery of boosters should maintain the epidemic at levels similar to or lower than currently observed.
4. However, under more pessimistic assumptions around contact patterns or underlying assumptions around the extent and duration of immunity (see Table 1), we project a substantial wave of total infections, hospitalisations and deaths, totalling 9,900 (95% CrI: 6,000, 14,200) deaths by 31 March 2022. In this scenario with more pessimistic assumptions, the current booster programme and vaccination of 12-15 year olds would thus not be sufficient to maintain the epidemic at low levels

* These trajectories are not predictions or forecasts, but indicative scenarios as the timings and scale of any future peaks remain highly uncertain