Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It’s early days for Plan B, Pierre I’d not count your chickens as you did with the schools reopening in January.
A number of deaths that are avoidable through vaccination, plus the implications for wider spread of community transmission. I’d certainly prefer to have my moral stance than indifference to the long term health impacts and deaths resulting from Covid-19.
I don’t think anyone would credibly claim 2027 is Plan B from 2021. It’s clearly a reference to winter. School mid-term offers some respite, but that will not last.
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This depends though surely. Ministers, the new health body, Whitty/Vallance etc will all be looking at the data.
If a measure is likely to have an impact on the virus and is not likely to have other effects which are disproportionate to it, it's likely it will get invoked either in a local/targeted way or on everyone - for example it would be difficult to lock down businesses and the country for the sake of infections which could be controlled more specifically e.g. restrictions in a local area.
I don't think we're looking yet at saying that Plan B will either happen or that we will be fine sticking to the current measures. Most schools have had either this last week, the week before, or both off, and that appears to be the age group and environment which is worst affected. As we have already seen before whenever the schools are open it spreads and whenever they are not it goes down. So the effect of this continuing depends on how many schoolkids are already immune to covid. Once it reaches the threshold it will slow down and stop spreading but this figure isn't going to be known due to the asymptomatic spread more early in the pandemic and also that testing has not until recently been widely available. I do think that a while back Whitty did say around half secondary age kids had already had it and that the remaining half will do. Given that it's now relatively easier to get a vaccine (they are allowing 12+ to book nationally finally) this will probably pinch that age group further. That's still Plan A.