Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...gests-12444117
[EXTRACT]
Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that - even without the government's 'Plan B' - COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.
According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying 'back-to-normal' behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.
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This is what happens anyway when you try and flatten the curve.
What people who are always in favour of this don't remember is that your integral under the curve has to be the population. So once you have successfully flattened it initially, you have to release, and your subsequent infection lifts the next infections to the same level if not higher if the virus is still around. We saw that last summer having basically got rid of covid via distancing and closing things, we then allowed things to open, nothing happened until we allowed more foreign holidays again and people brought the virus in from Spain and Greece again to a largely susceptible open population.
Of course, one doesn't need to explain what happened next and needed more curve flattening last winter to stop it. We now have more protection with infection and those who have had the vaccines, of course.
So restrictions now, will probably (along with other effects) bring the virus down more than the natural (also downward at the moment) trend, but risks a more severe peak again. If it can be allowed to let it happen now, then it probably would be the best thing provided the NHS doesn't get too overwhelmed.
Let's not forget we're now around a week where the infections have been lower than the equivalent day the week before, which is promising.
---------- Post added at 12:45 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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Interesting how they've reached that conclusion.
Considering the amount of people who are double jabbed here are still getting some infection (even if it's usually milder) this implies there isn't sufficient immunity there. But you see it much less that people who have actually had covid are getting it again.
I guess it depends on the detail, samples they were looking at, and that we still don't understand the longer term yet with the virus.