[nffc]

The issues with Plan B is that it has effects to be annoying but isn't either targeted enough at where the issues are or hard enough to effect hospitalisations.


Given that it's a menu to select from and that maybe not all of it will be applied either...
- Face coverings - well they certainly don't work by themselves and don't have an effect if a non-infected person is in a shop by themselves. Given that the definition of where this could be used is still so vague "in some indoor settings" they could look at the most likely issues and say it's now expected again in schools and on PT where there will be a large number of kids mixing at certain times of the day.

- WFH - a lot of people are still doing this or at least most of the time. Some people can't do it at all and presumably they won't be closing these jobs off again (or determining what isn't essential) without reinstating furlough. Unlikely to have an effect in any case on transmission in schools, or family transmission between infected school kids and their parents, grandparents etc.
- Vaccine passports - Nigh on useless as being vaccinated doesn't mean you aren't going to get or spread covid. But there is admittedly a reduction which makes things safer. Also need to have some fall back for people who can't be vaccinated either because of medical reasons or age, but this again (like face nappies) would depend on the settings you mandate it in. But on the other hand, the settings which are most likely to be super spreader events (nightclubs for example) aren't usually frequented by people who are likely to be hospitalised if they catch covid.



Most of this admittedly depends on what we don't know as opposed to what we do (i.e. what measures they will use and how) but even if they told people who couldn't WFH they just go into work as normal and those who can do, and mandate face masks and vax passports in any public indoor setting, it's difficult to see this would go far enough at reducing transmission in the groups at risk to go to hospital with covid sufficiently. Probably the main effect would be that it would be annoying, and you could see a lot of people just not putting masks back on, for example, which would reduce their effectiveness.


Plus there's little point in Plan B at all if the cases continue to dip as they are. That is the most likely way that hospitalisations will drop maybe in a week or so as they usually do.


Yes, they were arbitrary as the figures from last year don't take account of the vaccination effect, but you'd be sure that Whitty and Javid would have some form of measurement which indicates "danger"...

---------- Post added at 17:54 ---------- Previous post was at 17:52 ----------

I suppose the two key questions for invoking Plan B otherwise would be:
1. When and how would you remove these restrictions once cases and hospitalisations do drop
2. What would be the next stage if it has no effect, how would this be measured to ascertain the need for more restrictions and what would be appropriate tightening, and again, what would the exit plan be