Thread: Coronavirus
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Old 25-10-2021, 16:53   #7858
jfman
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
The hospitalisations must lag the infections - say by at least a week. The deaths must lag the hospitalisations - say by at least two weeks.

If there's a downward trend on infections, the other metrics will follow.
Didn't I do some fag packet maths on this?
It depends why infections are falling. All things being equal - yes. However the problem with the mass infections in school strategy is that while it’s easy for the figures to come down (there’s only so many susceptible schoolchildren left) the onward transmission into other age groups won’t be as easy to curtail and that’s where the hospitalisations and deaths are happening.
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