Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
While rare, I doubt “However, the NHS is not in danger of going under” will age well.
The statement today essentially conceded measures will be needed in the future. Which begs the question of why not take lesser actions sooner, for a shorter period. Rather than having to resort to stronger actions later.
|
Because no-one has a crystal ball. At this point the level of hospitalisations are manageable, the NHS isn't presently in danger of going under.
Whether this will continue to be stable over the coming months or if it will spike again like it did previously, neither the NHS bosses (who will only consider their own situation) nor the politicians, CMOs, Vallance etc advising them (who do have a wider context) know.
Don't forget there are other impacts of restrictions which don't consider the benefits if any to the NHS. So if we close or impact trade on businesses most of whom have been planning for Christmas especially in hospitality would lose out again, the impact of this no longer has the furlough scheme, or any rates holidays, which simply still have to be paid for, and also from other activities which have been unable to take place such as performing arts with socially distanced performers or audiences (in the latter, this impacts on the capacity hence numbers of tickets they can sell) who are only just getting back on their feet, all of this would need careful consideration to halt again, and off the basis of "we think more people might go to hospital" isn't perhaps sufficient yet.
It'd be equally foolish for them to introduce restrictions now when there's no clear evidence of a worsening in hospitalisations, or to not do so if this does happen, it's not known where this will end up yet. But, if it continues to predominate in children, and there continues not to be spill over into vaccinated adults resulting in hospitalisation, then there shouldn't be concern over those refusing jabs, since they have had their chance, and rolling out boosters to more people will probably help keep it at bay for a while longer until it's stopped spreading in kids because they've either been jabbed or had it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Sadly, such immunity - like vaccinations - wanes over time.
|
It's not simple to measure though, mainly because the memory effect of the immune system will mean that a decline in antibody levels (which most studies are looking at) matters less. If the immune system can still recognise the virus and make antibodies, then it doesn't matter if there are no antibodies at the time, you will still manage to fight it. The thing with a lot of viruses (this may be the same but you see it with flu as well) is that as the virus mutates the recognition of the T-cell and antibody response is evaded to the point it no longer recognises the virus to respond pre-emptively to exposure, so you get ill as it can't respond before it attacks cells.
This will be why the immune system can't respond as well if you're exposed to the virus when vaccinated, though antibody levels and some recognition will give it a head start, because the spike proteins already mutated slightly, and natural infection will mean your immune system recognises more of the virus. It's like trying to do an ID check with just a picture of someone's eye not their whole face.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
Thats what happens when you listen to the parnoid, & antisocial media.
People are not actually dying in the streets, or being carted off to hospital in droves.
The reality is that life is pretty normal in every place Ive been in the last few months.
In the entire time since March 2000 I still [personally] only know of a handful of cases.
|
Most of it is concentrated in school age kids and the hotspot in the SW around Bristol which appears to be where most of the false negative PCR results came from. Once those are ironed out, the latter no doubt is easier, it will appear more normal again. Hospitalisations have barely wavered from the current magnitude since the last month or two.
Round where we are most of the areas have been relatively static in terms of positive tests for some time now, I think most Notts councils are about 60-90 positives a day.