Originally Posted by Carth

Ifs, buts and maybes have generally been the cornerstones of all the Covid analysis up to now . .. go where the guesswork leads and we'll make further guesses when the data changes

Originally Posted by Pierre

I don't profess to be an epidemiologist, but there's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes in that analysis.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Given that on any given day UK hospital admissions can be around the 56,000 mark, 800-900 due to COVID is only 1.14%

---------- Post added at 09:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:29 ----------



It's not even hospitalisations as that can vary from someone rocking up at A&E with Covid symptoms and being sent home with a packet of Paracetamol 4 hours later to someone not being able to breathe arriving by ambulance.

The number of COVID patients in ICU/HDU and Deaths should be the metrics.

---------- Post added at 09:44 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ----------

According to the Nuffield trust there are 6,270 critical care beds in the NHS (I think England only)

at the moment there is 823 COVID on Ventilation (so that may not even be in ICU)

so that's 13% - I don't know at what level it would be deemed a concern.

Obviously beds does not equal Staff, but the NHS have had enough time to be ready for any winter spike, which given the vaccination program, I would think it impossible for it to reach the levels of late 2020 - if it does it would just prove that the vaccinations don't work!