[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by nffc

This would at least appear logical considering the hospitalisation of double-jabbed people is still low and most of the positive tests are in unvaccinated school kids.


At some point it will hit the level where enough people have had it or been vaccinated enough to stop it. Wonder what that's called :p

To backup what you've said (and it's called "my post of 28-August"), here's what I said:

I did a fag packet calculation. Based on the % of adult population given in the daily stats as at 28-August:

Adult population = 55 million.
78% fully vaccinated = 43 million
88% partly vaccinated = 48 million. I'll take the 45 million mid point of vaccination status.

10 million adults are up for statistical grabs. Let's assume 33,333 new case per day.

Then at that rate it would take 300 days if nobody else was vaccinated for the UK's adults to be loaded with anti-bodies.

The second dose daily rated is c. 128,000 which is closing the gap 4x faster than the infection rate. So, the two rate would converge within 3 months, possibly 2 months.

CONCLUSION: No need for any more lock-downs because the hospitals are running at a fraction of the cases as compared with January.

Anyone disagree?

However, the 2nd dose rate has dropped off so the convergence will take longer.