The case numbers dropping seems to be great news but the raw numbers should be treated with a little caution because;
- There is a big question on who is being tested and why. Schoolkids tests in England have suddenly dropped off the radar. If positivity is high in the 11-18 group, we are not seeing that group any more
- Is everyone who has potential COVID symptoms being tested and are people more or less likely to be tested in the run up to the summer period?
- Are risk averse people more likely to be tested than, for example, people who would happily put a flare where the sun doesn't shine?
Testing numbers on their own give a useful guide to where things are going but the data can be skewed easily if you don't look deeper into things. The ONS surveys are probably more reliable as they take in to account the population as a whole rather than those who actively get tested alone.
I hope the drop in cases is reflected in the overall real positive rate but I am not sure the daily reported case numbers are the clearest indicator