[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

The EU is acting as Spain’s proxy and attempting to overturn the Treaty of Utrecht, which, Spain always prefers to forget, gives a solid legal basis for British sovereignty over the Rock. That basis is vastly sounder than that which Spain relies on with respect to Melilla and Ceuta (“OK, Morocco, you can have your independence, but we’re hanging on to these two cities right here, just because it suits us”). Spain pretends its African colonies are integral to the Spanish State, while the UK has never sought to claim Gibraltar is anything more than it actually is: namely, territory ceded by a treaty ending a war. There are comparable territories all over Europe.

Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, I think it’s clear HMG never intended to make it work but signed it just to get the deal done. I think they’re planning to play chicken with the EU, and betting that now the new arrangements are established and working, they won’t risk collapsing the whole thing if the UK unilaterally abrogates its responsibilities in this area. Given the present, highly aligned state of the UK and EU markets, it would be very difficult for the EU to demonstrate anything more than a purely theoretical risk to its much-vaunted market rules. Are they puritanical enough to blow it all up? Interesting times ahead.

Their Gibraltar stance is evidence of their puritanical zeal.
Imo, they'll rely on the punishment rules in the Treaty and try to stick it to us via the ECJ, which has jurisdiction over the Protocol.

Then they'll punish us by suspension of parts of the Trade Agreement which will hurt them more than it hurts us. And, with a bit of perverse luck, will send Ireland into a pickle.