Cable Forum - View Single Post

jfman · 23-06-2021, 10:23

You are incorrectly assuming that cases, hospitalisations and deaths all relate to infections that took place at the same time.

Hospitalisations and deaths for a given case number will be higher on the down side of a curve (as in the weeks immediately preceding infections will be higher) than on the up side (where the weeks earlier cases will be lower).

The equivalent numbers for 30 September on the upward curve 12,556, 452 and 58. So while it demonstrates there is an improvement it's not as stark as using the February figures. It certainly doesn't back up the statement that decisions on restrictions since March aren't grounded in science.

23-06-2021, 10:23	#5990
jfman Architect of Ideas Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 10,473	Re: Coronavirus You are incorrectly assuming that cases, hospitalisations and deaths all relate to infections that took place at the same time. Hospitalisations and deaths for a given case number will be higher on the down side of a curve (as in the weeks immediately preceding infections will be higher) than on the up side (where the weeks earlier cases will be lower). The equivalent numbers for 30 September on the upward curve 12,556, 452 and 58. So while it demonstrates there is an improvement it's not as stark as using the February figures. It certainly doesn't back up the statement that decisions on restrictions since March aren't grounded in science.