Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
This morning I have been looking the numbers for the UK to try and get a handle on what might happen going forward and I am not sure how conclusive things are right now....
The cases are definitely on the way up ( link) Not unexpected given the looser restrictions now. However, I went all Donald Trump and wondered if this was due to more testing and so had a look at the positivity rate and that is also on the way up ( link) too so this isn't just because we are looking more.
There is also an uptick on hospitalisations - 17% week on week ( link) which is a bit more worrying.
However, deaths remain flat right now ( link) which is good news.
I guess the decision for what will happen on the 21st depends on the following questions;
- Will the hospitalisations go up in line with the case load?
- Will the death rate follow this?
Historically, there has been a couple weeks to go from case to hospital and hospital to death so I think this will be a last minute decision |
We do have to watch the hospitalisations, because whether or not people die at the end of it, this increases pressures on the NHS. However, I am not convinced by the percentage increases unless these become maintained, because we are dealing with small numbers here. Cases in half of the hotspots are already starting to decline.
This is not sufficiently significant to warrant the delay of relaxation of our control measures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Different facts twisted to the same old tune OB.
I'm unsure why you include "like it or not" - everyone welcomes the impact vaccination is having on more positive outcomes. It is indeed a game changer unfortunately you see the game as a binary choice of restrictions against no restrictions.
A significant proportion of the population remain both unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. It's a game changer but you wish to cut the game short and hope for the best - then again that was your attitude on 23 March 2020 to hope for the best.
I'll stick to getting my insightful analysis from others on the forum happy to utilise evidence and cite their sources. The other day, while confusing hospitalisations with deaths (minor error, I know) you also made the unsubstantiated claim that most people are now asymptomatic?
Do you have a source for that one or was it merely invented to suit your dogmatic view that we should not, and never have had, restrictions regardless of the impact on hospitalisations and deaths?
If vaccination is the game changer you profess it to be what's the problem with a few more weeks of getting more out there while also keeping large swathes of the economy open? When the alternative - if you are wrong - is lockdown? I'm sure those business owners open just now wouldn't thank you for it.
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Jfman, if you think the answer to all this is lockdowns, you are on your own. The lockdowns were an extreme response to an extreme danger, but we have the vaccines now, which have made the need for more damaging lockdowns unnecessary. You seem to think that extending the emergency measures by a few weeks won’t matter, when you must have read the news items showing that many businesses will finally collapse if that happens.
Look at the graphs, which clearly show that under 40s were largely unaffected by the virus, with only small numbers being admitted into hospital. Given that the vast majority of under 40s are now vaccinated, why are you so concerned?
Now we are inviting over 20s to be vaccinated. Your obsession with lockdowns is clearly overkill, but you just don’t see it, do you?
As far as the number of asymptomatic cases is concerned, I think we are underestimating, however, I would point you to the article from The Independent:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1828361.html
[EXTRACT]
More than half of people with a strong Covid infection did not report any of the major symptoms, new figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.