This morning I have been looking the numbers for the UK to try and get a handle on what might happen going forward and I am not sure how conclusive things are right now....
The cases are definitely on the way up (
link) Not unexpected given the looser restrictions now. However, I went all Donald Trump and wondered if this was due to more testing and so had a look at the positivity rate and that is also on the way up (
link) too so this isn't just because we are looking more.
There is also an uptick on hospitalisations - 17% week on week (
link) which is a bit more worrying.
However, deaths remain flat right now (
link) which is good news.
I guess the decision for what will happen on the 21st depends on the following questions;
- Will the hospitalisations go up in line with the case load?
- Will the death rate follow this?
Historically, there has been a couple weeks to go from case to hospital and hospital to death so I think this will be a last minute decision