Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
Thinking about the new Alba party, now this is going to split the vote between the SNP and Alba.
So neither is likely to get a majority, so who do they team up with, as I can't see Salmond or Sturgeon teaming up following recent events?
I guess the upside is that this could kill the independence vote
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It doesn't really work like that under the Holyrood voting system. As well as the constituency vote (same as Westminster) we all get a second 'list' vote which adds additional MSPs, taking account both of the number of list votes gained, but also the number of MSPs each party has gained in the constituency contest.
The Alba party is only standing on the list. It is not standing in any constituencies. If everyone who votes SNP in a constituency, then votes Alba on the list, the likelihood is that the Holyrood chamber would have around 60 SNP MSPs, all from constituency contests, and a further 30 Alba MSPs, all from the regional lists.
Nicola Sturgeon has argued that nationalist voters absolutely should not do this because that result would be such an egregious abuse of a voting system designed to create proportionality and fair representation, it would only end up harming the demand for a second referendum. The risk for her now though is that most, but not all, SNP supporters do as she asks and vote SNP on both the constituency and the list ballots. If the SNP bleeds a few list votes it may lose what list MSPs it has, without the Alba Party itself gaining enough votes to pick those seats up instead.
It's very hard to work out what might happen, because the voting system in use in Scotland is really only designed to repair the main deficiency in the first-past-the-post constituency contest, which is that a party may have a good showing across the country, but come second everywhere and end up with nothing. If the list becomes full of parties that only stand on the list, and do not put up candidates in individual constituencies too, then there is an increasing risk of perverse outcomes.