Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
They need 65 seats for a majority. To get all of those from the constituencies would be quite an achievement - even in 2011, they only got 53 seats, on 45.4% of the vote. At present they have 59 on 46.5%. If their constituency vote goes up any higher, exactly where in the country it’s going up will make a big difference to how many more seats it translates into.
You have a point though, they do tend to do slightly less well on the list vote, by a couple of points. The greens seem to be the main beneficiaries of that as things stand.
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They won 56 of 59 constituencies in the UK General Election in 2015, not standing in Michael Martin’s seat. So while it’d be an achievement it’s not without precedent in Scotland.
I do think that’s what will make the election fascinating viewing. A few percentage points either way impacts on the swing seats and the list is designed to compensate but doesn’t always perfectly - as you say it depends where the gains/losses are. SNP list votes do trend lower by around 5% with the main beneficiary the Greens as you say.