Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
In the first scenario the only impact on the SNP (as they're making it clear they are in this for a pro-independence supermajority) is the potential loss of the 4 "list" seats they hold. With the large number of votes it takes for the SNP to get anyone off the list it's hard to see how they'd (Salmond) not win seats. Could be a worrying time for the Greens though who generally rely on a 5-6% drop off of SNP first votes in the list.
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He needs to get nationalist voters to vote SNP for the constituency and Alba for the list in order for that strategy to work. It's tactical voting on a grand scale, using an electoral system that is still not very familiar to Scottish voters. The list system isn't used for Westminster elections, it's not used for the councils and it wasn't used for the Devo/AV/Indy/Eu referendums. The indications are that unless they have a strong niche interest (Greens, for example), people vote for the same party on the constituency and on the list.
Salmond's difficulty is that the SNP is already slagging him off in the press, so the chances of very large numbers of loyal SNP voters giving him their list vote must seem remote. Tactically, the SNP should be leaving him alone and letting him make his case - as you say, the SNP has so many constituency seats that they don't get much out of the list top up anyway. They have nothing to gain by attacking a party that isn't really contesting the same set of seats as they are. I don't think they're going to be able to get past the personality of the person leading the party though.