Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
The problem with confining risk analysis to the treaty alone is that it omits other risk factors such as getting supplies to NI; potential social unrest in NI which would be perverse in terms of protecting the GFA.
The Guvmin has explicitly stated that it does not want to break the treaty, just to extend the grace period so that compliant systems can be built/completed. The Guvmin wanted 2 years (I think) the EU offered 6 months (don't ask for a link but that's generally known).
Then you make the point about "trust". First, the EU is not a "nation state"; it is an association with degrees of power conferred by the constituent nation states. The EU is fronted by the EC aka Brussels. They hate us for Brexit and will use every bit of legal exertion to make their point. The UK cannot win in the potentially upcoming ECJ case because the letter of the treaty gives the judges no leeway.
It's very complex and not at all akin to the rip-off plumber; Ireland is digging its picador sticks into the UK via the EC and, if Boris sticks to his guns, will end badly for the Republic. Part of that complexity is the gouging away of NI from the UK. If we can adequately automate the NI customs processes (which needs the time the Guvmin has requested), then the feeling of gouging will diminish. In the meantime, the Guvmin cannot wait for the EC to put us through the rack so they can drag out the torture.
Some Remainers might say that we should have thought about that before signing the deal. Yes - that's right; we should have walked away 2 years after Article 50.
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So when the Government signed off on the 6 months grace period, do you feel it was done with the full intention of doing the work in 6 months or did the Government have no intention of fulfilling that promise and was going to take 2 years anyway?
If it was the first and there have been issues with getting everything in place, surely the sensible option would be to go through the Joint Committee set up to oversee and monitor the application of the treaty rather than just doing it. Let's remember that the Government has not requested an extension, it has told the EU it is taking one. It seems unnecessarily belligerent.
If it was the second and the UK had no intention of fulfilling its' obligations, then infringement procedures are probably justified.