[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Thanks for the compliments!

On your last comment, I would ask 'how so'? I agree that there will be differences of course but principle stands. I see in the COVID thread that you discuss risk assessment. With an international treaty, you would look at the risks and threats of the other party not complying with the treaty and embed corresponding mechanisms to account for this.

The robustness of those provisions would reflect the risk of one or both parties breaking the treaty and the consequences of that break and could vary from 'let's have a little chat' to ending the treaty immediately.

There's little trust between nation states which is why treaties exist in the first place. If treaties can be freely broken without consequence, this has a major impact on that trust

The problem with confining risk analysis to the treaty alone is that it omits other risk factors such as getting supplies to NI; potential social unrest in NI which would be perverse in terms of protecting the GFA.

The Guvmin has explicitly stated that it does not want to break the treaty, just to extend the grace period so that compliant systems can be built/completed. The Guvmin wanted 2 years (I think) the EU offered 6 months (don't ask for a link but that's generally known).

Then you make the point about "trust". First, the EU is not a "nation state"; it is an association with degrees of power conferred by the constituent nation states. The EU is fronted by the EC aka Brussels. They hate us for Brexit and will use every bit of legal exertion to make their point. The UK cannot win in the potentially upcoming ECJ case because the letter of the treaty gives the judges no leeway.

It's very complex and not at all akin to the rip-off plumber; Ireland is digging its picador sticks into the UK via the EC and, if Boris sticks to his guns, will end badly for the Republic. Part of that complexity is the gouging away of NI from the UK. If we can adequately automate the NI customs processes (which needs the time the Guvmin has requested), then the feeling of gouging will diminish. In the meantime, the Guvmin cannot wait for the EC to put us through the rack so they can drag out the torture.

Some Remainers might say that we should have thought about that before signing the deal. Yes - that's right; we should have walked away 2 years after Article 50.