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Sephiroth · 15-03-2021, 18:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

But in a contract of this sort, it would have been "best endeavours", due to all the unknowns - the EU can’t manage the contract between AZ and Halix.

There could be no reasonable mitigation, as the only mitigation would be to build another production line, which could have exactly the same issues...

That still doesn't justify that the EC did not perform adequate project management risk analysis.

You are right that there would be little by way of mitigation that they could engineer - but then they shouldn't have been so "how wonderful we are" if they couldn't know that the hoped for result might not materialise.

To my mind the term "best reasonable efforts" was the clue and I, as a project manager, would report major risks to my sponsors unless the assurances were satisfactory.

But you know all this, of course. Yes?

---------- Post added at 18:36 ---------- Previous post was at 18:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

To me, the mitigation was
- Multiple production sites.
- A portfolio approach to the vaccines procurement.

Relevant to remember that AstraZeneca was and is selling the vaccine to the world on a non-profit basis too.

I refer you to my reply to Hugh. Multiple production sites that were not yet available at contract signing is a great red flag to the likes of me and no mitigation at all.

The portfolio approach yielded little as well.

Why are you defending those fools (again)?

---------- Post added at 18:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

Is Europe's AstraZeneca jab decision-making flawed?

Quote:

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in understanding risk at Cambridge University, says it shows that sometimes you have to be bold in your decision-making.

'The precautionary principle can be a sensible way to make decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty.
"It favours inaction as a way of re
ducing risk. But the problem is that these are not normal times and inaction can be more risky than action."
What is needed in circumstances like these, according to Sir David, is to work out what is most likely on the balance of probability. That requires looking at both the direct and indirect evidence and the context those decisions are being made in.

"Making decisions when there is such uncertainty is incredibly difficult, but sometimes it can be harmful to wait for certainty. Not vaccinating people will costs lives."

(Spoiler alert: yes, it is).

See the EU for details.