Is Europe's AstraZeneca jab decision-making flawed?
(Spoiler alert: yes, it is).
Quote:
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in understanding risk at Cambridge University, says it shows that sometimes you have to be bold in your decision-making.
'The precautionary principle can be a sensible way to make decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty.
"It favours inaction as a way of reducing risk. But the problem is that these are not normal times and inaction can be more risky than action."
What is needed in circumstances like these, according to Sir David, is to work out what is most likely on the balance of probability. That requires looking at both the direct and indirect evidence and the context those decisions are being made in.
"Making decisions when there is such uncertainty is incredibly difficult, but sometimes it can be harmful to wait for certainty. Not vaccinating people will costs lives."
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