Damien

2024 and the primaries are a long time away in politics. Sarah Palin seemed to be a major player in 2009 and the 2010 mid-terms were a success for the brand of the Republican Party she was a figurehead for. However, her power diminished before 2012.

Trump is obviously a much bigger figure having been President but will his hold on the base last until 2023-2024? Without the platform of being President, he won't be as omnipresent and he faces a number of personal legal and financial problems at the moment.

You would make him favourite for the Republican nomination still but even then Republicans might prioritise getting Biden (or whoever runs as the Democratic nominee assuming Biden does one term) out of the White House and as an electoral prospect for the General Election he wouldn't look great. He has lost one election and the aftermath of that wouldn't have done him any favours in the eyes of Independents - he just isn't popular. So will the Republican base, out of personal loyalty to Trump, give an unpopular election loser another shot? Surely after the dust is settled there will be enough of them who want to move on.