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jfman · 14-02-2021, 11:47

Raab out on the Sundays warning against setting arbitrary timetables which is understandable. They'll want to tip toe out of the restrictions at first monitoring the real world performance of the vaccine. It's not helpful to have deadlines that put political pressure on to measure success/failure of what's ultimately a scientific endeavour and there's no need for unnecessary risks at this stage so late in the day.

By May it'll have been 15 months all the while we should carrying out 8 million vaccinations a month. Paul is right about mid summer being a more realistic target for removing many/most, and at this stage it's more important (I think anyway) that it's a one way street. The time it takes for restrictions to be reintroduced if it went wrong (June), ease (July, optimistically), evaluate outcomes (end August) is months.

A little bit of hesitation and caution now should reap dividends in the long run so that every 6-8 weeks we take a meaningful step closer to normal. The school holidays impact on R will be a good point to push further.

14-02-2021, 11:47	#3690
jfman Architect of Ideas Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 11,146	Re: Coronavirus Raab out on the Sundays warning against setting arbitrary timetables which is understandable. They'll want to tip toe out of the restrictions at first monitoring the real world performance of the vaccine. It's not helpful to have deadlines that put political pressure on to measure success/failure of what's ultimately a scientific endeavour and there's no need for unnecessary risks at this stage so late in the day. By May it'll have been 15 months all the while we should carrying out 8 million vaccinations a month. Paul is right about mid summer being a more realistic target for removing many/most, and at this stage it's more important (I think anyway) that it's a one way street. The time it takes for restrictions to be reintroduced if it went wrong (June), ease (July, optimistically), evaluate outcomes (end August) is months. A little bit of hesitation and caution now should reap dividends in the long run so that every 6-8 weeks we take a meaningful step closer to normal. The school holidays impact on R will be a good point to push further. Last edited by jfman; 14-02-2021 at 11:55.