Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Fretting about the South Africa variant is a red herring, given that deployment decisions were taken well before the data around it had been collated, or indeed that there was evidence of community transmission in the UK. Nobody can be said to have taken a risk with that. The timing doesn’t fit.
Furthermore I think you’re misunderstanding the words of advice from the vaccine manufacturers, none of whom have said “don’t change the dosage schedule” - what they have said is, “we have no data for that schedule” which is a bald, factual statement and exactly what you would expect from a scientist qualified only to report what their actual trial results are.
In fact there is evidence that the first dose of any of the approved Covid vaccines is sufficient to very significantly reduce the incidence of serious disease. This is the public health outcome the UK government is pursuing at the moment; the first aim is to stop people dying of it. The AZ CEO said as much last week, and endorsed the UK government strategy for both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines. Of course I’m aware you rejected that when it came up in discussion last week - that’s why I tend to be cynical about your profession of concern, and tend to ascribe it to cynicism yourself. I don’t think you’re engaging in good faith with data or genuine public health policy aims, and are instead taking the usual path of least resistance, which is to assume everyone involved is incompetent, on the take, covering their own backs, etc.
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I’m not sure how the South African variant (or indeed any) can be described as a red herring. We’ve always known mutation possible, and indeed likely. The absence of community transmission was simply a matter of inevitability with no border screening or enforced quarantine.
Rather than go round in circles for weeks I’m more than happy to just wait and see what happens as this should become clear in the near future and lockdown restrictions ease. If deaths and hospitalisations among the vaccinated age groups are eliminated or significantly reduced that will clearly vindicate the strategy.
If not I’m sure there will be a new variant along to blame and restrictions continue while further rounds of vaccination are developed.