Thread: Coronavirus
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Old 02-01-2021, 19:57   #2340
OLD BOY
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
While the analysis is sound there’s other factors - there will be overlap between the “already infected” and vaccinated groups whether the former is as high as 20m or not If immunity starts to dwindle after a year (again this is only a guess) a significant proportion of the already infected from the first wave will lose immunity in the next 26 weeks. If the vast majority are getting a vaccine only proven to be 62% effective this pushes the “all done” date back further.
That’s one hell of an assumption, jfman! Where’s your evidence for such a wild statement? Your posts are more off the wall than before these days, and that’s saying something!

At present, nobody knows the lifespan of a Covid vaccination, but six months is pretty extreme, even for you.

---------- Post added at 19:57 ---------- Previous post was at 19:51 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Agreed, but that’s not "within weeks"...

Looking at the ONS numbers from late last month, they estimate

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...24december2020

Those figures seem low to me - is that just that week?

Re-reading it, yes, it is.

Statista puts the cumulative total at 2.3 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ses-in-the-uk/
I agree with where Pierre is coming from, but I think the problem is with knowing who the people who have had this infection without knowing it (or not reporting it) actually are.

I think we all need to appreciate that the emergency measures are designed to ensure that the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Once we have achieved that, the measures can be lifted. We are not looking at a total elimination of the virus.
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