01-01-2021, 11:35
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#2247
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,619
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Some are so desperate to keep the country locked down, delaying the virus will just cause more mutations....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
You do know the more the virus is transmitted, the more likely it is that mutations occur?
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That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution. |
erm, lockdowns slow the spread, reducing the mutations... 
Anyway, about that vaccine thing...
https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/sta...244423680?s=19
Quote:
We cannot outrun the virus.
It's estimated 30% of the UK pop. are vulnerable to severe disease - which is ~20,000,000 people
https://thelancet.com/journals/langl...seccestitle160
At 300K a week, it takes 15 months to vaccinate them all.
If we tripled the programme, to 1m a week, it would take till May.
To achieve an end to the pandemic through vaccination alone, would mean reaching a herd immunity threshold.
With the new variant this would need to be very high, ~80% or above, or 52m people.
Even at 1m doses/ week, it takes a year to do this. /5
And in the meantime we continue to average 550 deaths/ day. If that continued on until May that's another >70,000 deaths from today, and continue overwhelming pressure on hospitals and healthcare.
We can't outrun the Wolf. We must tackle it. /6
Which means aggressive suppression measures, with everything we have, to reduce the virus as much as possible.
And aggressive vaccination programmes, running 24/7, day and night, as fast as we can deliver it. /7
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