31-12-2020, 13:52
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#2240
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,619
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
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For the tl:dr’s amongst us...
Quote:
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We found that regardless of control measures simulated, all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths, peaking in spring 2021 for London, South East and East of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of England (Fig. 4). In the absence of substantial vaccine roll-out, cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 may exceed those in 2020 (Table 1). School closures in January 2021 may delay the peak (Fig. 4) and decrease the total burden in the short term. However, implementation of more stringent measures now with a subsequent lifting of these restrictions in February 2021 leads to a bigger rebound in cases, particularly in those regions that have been least affected so far (Fig. 4 and Table 1). However, these delaying measures may buy time to reach more widespread population immunity through vaccination. Vaccine roll-out will further mitigate transmission, although the impact of vaccinating 200,000 people per week—similar in magnitude to the rates reached in December 2020—may be relatively small (Fig. 5). An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave (Table 1).
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