Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
To me, the important factors would now be:
1. Tariff/quota free goods;
2. A short grace period for adjustments to be made on both sides.
It would be interesting to learn what will happen on visiting the EU and matters such as IDPs/Green Cards.
I would like to see an OBR report on the additional costs UK industry will have to bear for the increased administrative burden.
Finally, I won't be whinging if they get a bit more fish.
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This probably answers your questions on the negative economic impact to the UK but is probably not as granular as you strive for. The trouble is, saying the economy will be X% worse off doesn't really mean much to most people so is disregarded as it's not translated into what this means in terms of schools, hospitals, jobs for their children, etc.
Quote:
The short-term impact in deal and no-deal scenarios
In the short term, additional trade frictions between the UK and EU will occur in both scenarios. There is also the possibility of immediate disruption to trade from 1 January 2021 due to the new rules with, for example, new border checks and customs formalities.
The vast majority of economic studies from the government (in 2018) and others show that the higher the barriers (cost) of trading with the EU (via tariffs and non-tariff barriers), the larger the negative impact on the UK economy overall in the long-term. A no-deal outcome is associated with a greater hit to GDP.
The OBR, based on analysis of external economic studies, expects UK GDP to be around 4% lower in a deal scenario in the long-term compared to a scenario where the UK stayed in the EU. In a no-deal scenario the OBR expects GDP would be an additional 2%-points lower.
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https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-9096/
---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K
No deal has been the 'wet dream' of many on here, and of Torygraph readers by the sound of it. Haven't you heard ? I'm a fan of the paper, v entertaining 
However a deal is damage limitation and something to be welcomed. I for one can't wait for the blue passport worth 4 years of negotiation for that.  |
Having a Polish-made blue passport will help passport control to rapidly direct you away from the short EEA/EU passports queue towards the long UK passport queue.
