Cable Forum - View Single Post - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

1andrew1 · 28-11-2020, 00:57

I don't think there's any ideology involved on the EU's part. Rightly or wrongly, it's just defending its members' interests. I doubt anyone can wring a better deal from the EU than Lady Thatcher did. Running down the clock only plays to the EU's advantage. To his credit, this is something Dominic Cummings appreciated.

No deal means no Nissan and more unemployment. The OBR suggests an additional 2% reduction in GDP on top of the 4% the country will suffer if it left with the current deal. The EU's calculation will be that BoJo can't afford no deal, especially now. On the one hand, BoJo acknowledges this and quietly paid out a £1bn leaving settlement to the EU last week. But he also knows that economic literacy is low in the UK and the population can't easily translate a 6% decline in GDP into the impact on their pay checks and public services. The fog of Covid also helps.

It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

28-11-2020, 00:57	#4651
1andrew1 cf.mega poster Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 15,405	Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20 I don't think there's any ideology involved on the EU's part. Rightly or wrongly, it's just defending its members' interests. I doubt anyone can wring a better deal from the EU than Lady Thatcher did. Running down the clock only plays to the EU's advantage. To his credit, this is something Dominic Cummings appreciated. No deal means no Nissan and more unemployment. The OBR suggests an additional 2% reduction in GDP on top of the 4% the country will suffer if it left with the current deal. The EU's calculation will be that BoJo can't afford no deal, especially now. On the one hand, BoJo acknowledges this and quietly paid out a £1bn leaving settlement to the EU last week. But he also knows that economic literacy is low in the UK and the population can't easily translate a 6% decline in GDP into the impact on their pay checks and public services. The fog of Covid also helps. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.