Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Lockdown on it’s own can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.
Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.
It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.
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An expensive and in fact ruinous waste of time.
---------- Post added at 18:59 ---------- Previous post was at 18:52 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
I think on balance that OB has the better of the argument between him and jfman.
His key point is that where have the lockdowns help crush the virus? OB has long acknowledged that the lockdowns are simply a device to narrow the flow of CV patients into hospital and does nothing else.
I'll remind what I said a week or so ago which casts doubt on OB's preference for herd immunity:
1. It's a coronavirus and no vaccine has been found for other CVs (AFAIK);
2. Nothing is known about immunity from CV - rather to the contrary reinfection is known.
3. The vaccine scene has gone rather quiet, which means that it'll be a long time before general release may occur (if at all) and that depends on the amount of immunity granted.
3. Treatments have improved to help restore health.
Maybe the two of them will now converge on me!
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Herd immunity can occur either naturally or with a vaccine. The latter is not guaranteed and constant lockdowns delay but don’t eliminate infections.
Reinfection has occurred only rarely and therefore can be ignored without further evidence. Spanish flu disappeared on its own after two years.
There is only one sensible solution, in my view. All the alternatives I have heard seem to be fatally flawed and these are for the pussies.
The PM knows what the right answer is, he just needs the courage to run with it.
---------- Post added at 19:03 ---------- Previous post was at 18:59 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Lockdown on it’s own can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.
Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.
It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.
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If this goes on much longer we won’t be able to afford these remedies. This is cloud cuckoo land if ever I saw it.