[jfman]

For what it’s worth, and in fairness, I do think Pierre is making a very good point. However we don’t have the confidence a) that we are quickly finding cases or b) that test, trace, isolate is finding contacts.

Without this you end up stuck modelling growth - which is unfortunately inevitable without the above. We can introduce these measures now, or in two weeks, or in four. All we will have to show for it is more ill people and more deaths. It won’t save the economy, it’s only likely that the restriction phase will run for a longer period of time before we enter a phase of reduced restrictions.

Whitty and Vallance are already on record saying we are likely to cycle in and out for months to come. The question isn’t the merits of the restrictions, it’s the merits of delay. If we are going to keep restrictions until test, trace, isolate gets under control and figures drop to 5,000 a day or so it’s better to start now.