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Originally Posted by jfman
The data is showing more cases, more hospital admissions and more patients on ventilators and in intensive care week on week. To stand by and do nothing, or even worse open up further, has an inevitable outcome.
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https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
On every every Metric, admissions, patients in care, patients on ventilators And deaths the numbers are currently less than the first wave by a factor of 10 or more.
Considering the NHS was not “overwhelmed” in the first wave, there is plenty of capacity and no justification for a second national lockdown unless these figures increase considerably.
There isn’t really even a justification for all the current extra local restrictions, as currently all decision making seems to be made on infection rates.
The Lancet article states
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The maximum incubation period is assumed to be up to 14 days,2 whereas the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days.
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In which case we should already be seeing large increases now in admissions and ventilation - and were not.
This can only mean:
- this second wave ( I don’t personally think it is a second wave, but I’ll use the term to refer to this time period) is less Dangerous/ more milder strain.
Or
- the COVID tests are inaccurate - as alluded to by several scientists regarding the false positives issue.