Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
We’re still waiting. Deaths remain consistently under 100 since the 28th July.
To reflect the sudden rise in infections deaths would have to start to increase in the next week at the latest.
Infections got to first wave Levels (5000 per day) around 22nd September.
During the first wave we were seeing 1000 deaths per day a week later, when we had got to that point.
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However in the first wave we didn't have the testing capacity to test everyone - those with symptoms were advised to stay home. So the 5,000 then isn't comparable to 5,000 now.
The deaths figure will also have been skewed by the care home situation, which shouldn't happen again. So to simply say because we don't see 1,000 tests next week is to compare apples with oranges.
The data is showing more cases, more hospital admissions and more patients on ventilators and in intensive care week on week. To stand by and do nothing, or even worse open up further, has an inevitable outcome. Even the deaths figure won't be comparable as you now have to die within 28 days of a test.
Some data from the Lancet on the timeline:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext