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Originally Posted by Pierre
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I agree that the projections were somewhat simplistic as they are based on us doing nothing different from what were are doing now.
In the article you posted, it showed that France and Spain had an initial exponential growth that then went linear. However, both France and Spain reacted to the exponential growth and put measures in place to slow the spread.
There is an interesting discussion to be had around how much the public will react
vs. how much governments need to enforce measures and how much this reflects society in different countries. For example, in Sweden, there is a strong social contract between the public and the government so, in many cases, their COVID responses were pretty much voluntary and not enforced. Many far east countries are the same with mask wearing for example. Compare that with the US public response