[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I have. I think you’ve made assumptions that are incorrect.

Pretty much every sentence is based on assumptions you’ve made in the sentence that preceded it that are flawed, or at least not the only possible reasoning, claiming it is a logical conclusion when it is not.

I could equally claim that the first wave would be seven times as bad as the second using the “straightforward logic” it projected seven nightingale hospital compared to one for the second wave.

I think everyone would accept that conclusion is made in the absence of material facts.

Are your assumptions based on material facts, jfman, rather than on your natural inclination to argue?

Nobody has all the answers, but there are one or two things becoming apparent as we learn more about the virus.

I would remind you that you have been berating the government consistenly for not locking down earlier, and you have been comparing our death totals with other countries who have not counted their death totals in the same way as we have.

In those countries, the second wave is coming back with a vengeance. Nobody, but nobody (and that includes you and me) knows the extent of our second wave because it hasn't happened yet. If it turns out to be a very shallow wave, that will even out the death totals and confirm that the later lockdown did no harm. This is why I have said throughout that it is far too early to criticise the government for taking advice from the medical people that the herd immunity theory was the one to follow before the panic set in.

To be perfectly clear, I am not saying that we won't get the full force of a second wave. No-one knows at this stage. But if we do, it really does confirm the futility of your lockdown solutions, doesn't it?

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:18 ----------

Originally Posted by nomadking

Lockdown and other measures)eg shielding, social distancing) prevented herd immunity from happening.

Also as I've previously pointed out, antibodies decrease naturally after a few months. Instead the immune "memorizes" the antigen(eg virus) and is primed and ready, if it encounters it again.

I agree with your second paragraph, nomad, but the first is not right. Herd immunity is just a fact of nature, it has not been eliminated.

It is because we have not yet acquired herd immunity that we are now seeing the start of a second wave. The measures we introduced have just slowed the process down and increased the risk of mutation.

---------- Post added at 19:28 ---------- Previous post was at 19:23 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

I say we hibernate from winter, let Covid pass over and come back out in Spring.

Except that it will still be there, waiting for the fools who think they've beaten it.

---------- Post added at 19:34 ---------- Previous post was at 19:28 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

All countries, literally all, need to simultaneously push to zero. Release areas/regions from lockdown when they get there. When someone finally does the sums this was always the rational response.

However capitalism, and an aim for competitive advantage, always made some idiots gamble. If they are right the returns are huge. However like a problem gambler they routinely lose. There's only ever been one way out without a vaccine. I'll likely still be here in spring arguing as hundreds of billions have been spend on Covid mitigation. A fraction of the cost of paying 66 million folk, on a household basis, to stay apart for 2 months.

Covid 19 is also a problem in Communist Russia! Your theories are progressively becoming more bizarre!