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Originally Posted by pip08456
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You’re still making assumptions that don’t necessarily flow together.
We don’t know how many Covid cases there were in March/April, had no idea of the R number and no real idea which cases were being most affected. Contingency planning was done, reasonably, with a mass of incomplete or unknown data.
We do have more data now - so as Seph correctly points out this decision could be based on modelling for Birmingham alone, this doesn’t preclude further action in other areas, nor does it mean the Birmingham one will definitely be used.
To then extrapolate for their whether one wave will be worse than another, without knowing what mitigation the Government is about to embark upon, and what compliance levels there are is fundamentally guesswork.
And as nomad points out - we are approaching a time of generally peak demand for NHS services.