Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
There are many ways of agreeing to Scottish independence as a referendum outcome. Imo it would need:
1. A > 60/40 vote for independence.
2. Certain bases or islands to remain British sovereign territory (they'll never agree)
3. Independence day to be immutably defines (and not longer than 2 years)
4. In default, Scotland will leave the UK without agreement
5. Assets and values in both directions to be clearly defined and liquidated into the agreement
6. Scotland to have its own currency at a mutually agreed date
7. Not a penny goes to Scotland from England as taxpayer input after independence.
8. They have two years from Independence in which to decide whether or not to rejoin the UK.
|
We'll never be able to sell a supermajority vote, not after having the last two referendums we've had as not requiring it. I think such a monumental change as breaking up the union should require more than 50% but that's been set as convention now.
I don't think it helps the cause to be too hostile to them at first anyway lest we risk a negative reaction. Certainly we can make it clear that we won't enter a currency union. They can use the pound, we can't stop them, but we're not their central bank post-Indy and won't consider Scotland when setting montary policy.
7 and 8 are unworkable as you can't such restrictions for future Governments. If both England and Scotland were to want to reform the union 10 years down the line then they can do so. Besides it's also counterproductive to enshrine in an agreement an 'out' down the line, it could make Independence seem like a free hit in which they can change their mind if it goes wrong.
We want Scotland to stay, we're not going to be draconian about it, but if they vote to leave then that means their own currency and the remainder of the United Kindom and it's 61 million people becomes a competitor albeit a friendly one. Scottish Businesses will no longer have an immediately addressable market of 66 million people in which the regulations, language and currency are all the same. Their addressable market is now 5 million.