[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

I'm curious why they use 28 days.

The average recovery time is supposed to be 2 weeks, and if you test positive then surely you are alreay in this 2 week period ?

(Isnt this why we have a 14 day self isolation period)

Ultimately if someone puts you on a ventilator they can extend life and treatment. Some will make it and others won’t.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

The maximum incubation period is assumed to be up to 14 days,2 whereas the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days.3, 4 Recently, WHO reported that the time between symptom onset and death ranged from about 2 weeks to 8 weeks.5

If someone died at the end of this timeline (and weren’t re-tested during it) they’d now no longer be in the figures.

The 28 days is simply a best guess.

---------- Post added at 07:53 ---------- Previous post was at 07:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Didn’t say “rely”, said large %. Football has TV/ sponsorship revenue. Stadium revenue ( for PL at least) has long been superfluous to income. It is not known how the how or if the smaller non-league clubs Will fair. Likewise small independent cinemas and theatre are still an unknown. It’s a poor comparison anyway.

For Spain the percentage is about 11%.

These are “poor comparisons” because you don’t like them, not because they are inaccurate. Stadium gate receipts are far from “superfluous” and even if they were there’s hospitality and retail (jobs) built around them in shops, bars, restaurants. Aggregated over hundreds of football matches that’s a lot of money now no longer flowing through the economy.

Independent cinemas and theatres aren’t viable with the virus in circulation. Again these are jobs, and customers in Rishi’s service economy.

To deny that restaurants, Bars, scooter hire that are experiencing a 60-70% drop in footfall won’t be affected is blinkered to say the least.

They may survive, but the comment was based around economic impact and recovery.

Again you’re viewing my post as binary - nobody is disputing it’ll have some effect but you’re overstating it.

It will have an economic impact, and we’ll find out how big it was come November- ish.

It’s not February or March though. It’s August.

You’re assuming the virus will behave differently without mitigation - this is no different from “it’ll burn itself out in the summer”.

We’ll see, as cases continue to stay in the 0.0X % zone, people will more and more question restrictions.

Schools going back is the next big one, if they go back without a jump in infections.

And that’s a big if.

People can question restrictions all they please. When they breach them cases will spike. There’s no science, or even pseudoscience, that I’m aware of that demonstrates this will go away by itself.

You’re also assuming people won’t selectively question restrictions. If the middle class decide they quite like working from home, and going down their local, there are huge parts of the economy in city centres that will never recover.

There’s no return to normal without elimination.